- Will Wang Mei-hui win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?78¢78%
- Will Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?22¢22%
- Will Chen Chia-ping win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?3¢3%
- Will Weng Shou-liang win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?2¢2%
- Will Huang Hung-cheng win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?<1¢<1%
- Will Chen Kai-huang win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?<1¢<1%
Wang Mei-hui, the Democratic Progressive Party legislator representing Chiayi City, holds the clear lead in trader pricing ahead of the November 28 local election, reflecting the party's structural advantages in a traditionally green-leaning constituency and her established local profile. The opposition's unified backing of Taiwan People's Party candidate Chang Chi-kai after a joint KMT-TPP primary has consolidated support but has not closed the gap, as earlier polling showed Wang ahead by several points and outgoing KMT mayor Huang Min-hui's high approval has not fully transferred. Recent campaign developments, including Chang's public efforts to arrange debates and Wang's camp's consistent refusal, have reinforced perceptions of a stable frontrunner position without shifting the implied probabilities. Minor candidates and independents remain negligible in the pricing, consistent with historical patterns in this race.
Rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Chiayi City as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).