- Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?19¢19%
The 90% cap on gambling loss deductions stems from a provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025 and applies to the 2026 tax year onward. Bipartisan legislation such as the FULL HOUSE Act, sponsored by Reps. Steven Horsford and Max Miller, advanced through the House Ways and Means Committee on a 38-5 vote in mid-September as part of a larger tax package, but it has not received a floor vote or Senate consideration. With Congress in recess ahead of the November midterms and limited session time remaining, the measure faces procedural and calendar hurdles that reduce the likelihood of enactment before January 1, 2027. Industry advocates and Nevada lawmakers continue to highlight the issue, yet the absence of scheduled action sustains trader expectations that the cap will remain in place.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%. Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.