- California Higher Local Tax Vote Threshold Proposition4¢4%
Proposition 43 on California's November 3, 2026 ballot would extend the existing two-thirds voter approval requirement for local special taxes to those placed via citizen initiative, effective January 1, 2027, closing a gap created by court rulings that had permitted simple-majority passage for voter-initiated measures. This legislative constitutional amendment emerged from a June 2026 compromise between state leaders and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, which withdrew a broader initiative that included retroactive effects and tighter limits on charter-city transfer taxes. Local government associations, service advocates, and Democratic lawmakers have opposed the measure, arguing it would hinder funding for targeted programs like public safety, housing, and infrastructure by raising the bar for citizen-driven proposals. With the election approaching, trader consensus favoring rejection at 63.5% reflects polling signals and the political difficulty of imposing supermajority thresholds on local revenue initiatives amid concerns over service delivery.
Rules
Proposition 43 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would raise the threshold for citizen-driven special tax ballot initiatives to pass from a simple majority to two-thirds, making it harder to impose or increase taxes. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).