- Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?41¢
- Will Scott Wiener win the CA-11 House seat?60¢
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Scott Wiener holds a modest lead in trader consensus for the November 3 general election in California's 11th Congressional District, reflecting his stronger primary performance and substantial fundraising edge over Connie Chan. Both Democrats advanced from the June 2 top-two primary in the solidly Democratic seat vacated by Nancy Pelosi, with Wiener securing 40.7% to Chan's 29.7%. Recent endorsement splits, including Barbara Boxer's support for Chan and labor backing her progressive platform, have kept the contest competitive. Key differentiators include Wiener's record on housing legislation versus Chan's local supervisor profile and stances on foreign policy issues. Additional campaign developments, such as further fundraising reports, voter outreach in San Francisco neighborhoods, or shifts in turnout among key Democratic factions, could widen the gap before Election Day.