- Will Paul Choi win the next Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?55¢55%
- Will David Xie win the next Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?37¢37%
- Will Andrew Rose win the next Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?<1¢<1%
- Will Bryan Fockler win the next Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?<1¢<1%
Paul Choi of the BC NDP holds a narrow 39-vote lead over Conservative challenger David Xie in the initial count for Burnaby South-Metrotown, with Bryan Fockler of the BC Green Party and Andrew Rose of OneBC trailing substantially. This razor-thin margin after election day on October 24 aligns with trader consensus assigning elevated implied probabilities to both Choi and Xie while keeping other candidates near even odds. The riding's competitive history, including Choi's 2024 win by roughly 1,200 votes, combined with split opposition support and standard procedural factors such as remaining ballot validation and potential recounts, sustains the tight positioning. Further vote tabulation or official certification could shift the outcome in either direction.
Rules
General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Burnaby South-Metrotown British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).