- Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Sur Congress election?59¢59%
- Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Sur Congress election?15¢15%
- Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Sur Congress election?5¢5%
- Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Sur Congress election?5¢5%
- Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Sur Congress election?5¢5%
- Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Sur Congress election?3¢3%
Morena holds a narrow lead in trader pricing for the 2027 Baja California Sur state congress election, reflecting its current 12-seat majority in the 21-member legislature and early polling that places its coordinator ahead at roughly 35-43 percent. PAN follows in second with 27-28 percent support in recent surveys, while smaller parties trail further behind. The race remains competitive because opposition forces could consolidate votes in key districts, and undecided respondents exceed 20 percent in some measurements. Internal Morena coordination efforts and candidate registration processes for federal and local seats have begun, yet no major campaign events or unified opposition alliances have emerged to shift the balance. The next legislative renewal uses a mix of single-member districts and proportional representation, leaving room for late developments in turnout or alliances to alter seat outcomes.
Rules
Legislative elections to elect the 21 members of the Congress of the State of Baja California Sur are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Baja California Sur as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Estatal Electoral de Baja California Sur. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Estatal Electoral de Baja California Sur, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Instituto Estatal Electoral de Baja California Sur (https://www.ieebcs.org.mx/).