- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?4¢
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?<1¢
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?16¢
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?11¢
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?<1¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.
Houthi forces in Yemen have intensified ground operations in western Taiz province, seeking to capture elevated terrain and the government-held port of Mokha near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as part of efforts to strengthen control over Red Sea access routes. Recent clashes have produced the highest casualties in years, with reports of approximately 129 deaths amid rocket, drone, and ground assaults. These moves occur against the backdrop of reduced tanker and commercial traffic through the strait—already well below pre-crisis averages due to earlier Houthi threats, selective attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, and insurance adjustments—while the parallel disruption at the Strait of Hormuz has heightened the waterway’s strategic weight for energy exports. Trader assessments reflect ongoing uncertainty over whether Houthi territorial gains will translate into sustained shipping restrictions or prompt diplomatic or military responses that restore safer passage.