Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?12¢
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?3¢
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?18¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.
Houthi forces in Yemen, backed by Iran, have escalated maritime threats in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict, declaring a targeted naval blockade against Saudi-linked vessels and deploying missiles and drones near the chokepoint. In mid-July 2026, the group announced restrictions on Saudi port traffic through the Red Sea gateway, prompting reroutes by multiple oil tankers, confirmed strikes on at least two vessels, and a sharp rise in global crude prices above $100 per barrel. While Houthi statements emphasize selective enforcement rather than total closure for all shipping, traffic volumes remain suppressed well below pre-2024 levels, with warnings from maritime security centers highlighting risks of further attacks. Key variables include any intensification of regional strikes, Saudi or coalition naval responses, diplomatic de-escalation efforts, or shifts in Iranian directives that could alter the scope of disruptions through this critical energy transit route.