- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?3¢3%
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?8¢8%
- 3.3%November 30$218.1k Vol.
- 7.5%December 31$2.2m Vol.
Houthi forces gained control of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, Mokha port, and Perim Island in September 2026, strengthening their ability to monitor and selectively target traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait without a formal closure. This has sustained elevated war-risk premiums and rerouting for many vessels, particularly tankers, keeping overall tonnage roughly 46% below pre-crisis levels as of October 2026. Containership transits have rebounded to 59-68% of 2023 benchmarks, with weekly averages near 190-209 vessels and daily figures around 24-28, well above the IMF PortWatch threshold of a 7-day moving average at or below 10 arrivals that would trigger market resolution. Renewed Houthi-Saudi missile exchanges in November have heightened tensions but produced no confirmed commercial attacks since August. Shipping lines continue cautious Suez restorations while monitoring for escalation, supporting trader consensus that effective closure by year-end carries low implied probability.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.