- Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?<1¢<1%
Arizona voters will decide Proposition 144 on November 3, 2026, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment that would enshrine citizenship requirements for voting and registration, mandate government-issued identification for all ballots including mail voting, prohibit foreign nationals from contributing to influence state elections, and permit onsite tabulation. The measure passed the Republican-controlled legislature along party lines earlier in 2026. Recent county-level investigations have identified small numbers of noncitizen voters on rolls due to prior Motor Vehicle Division errors, though outcomes were unaffected. Supporters highlight reinforced election integrity and alignment with existing statutes, while opponents raise concerns over added barriers to mail voting, which accounts for a large share of ballots. The narrow 52% implied probability for passage reflects these competing priorities and partisan divisions ahead of the general election.
Rules
Arizona Proposition 144 (HCR 2001) is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would amend the Arizona Constitution to specify that only citizens of the United States may vote and register to vote in Arizona elections and require voters to present government-issued proof of identity to cast a ballot, whether in person or by mail, among other items. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).