- Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?44¢44%
- Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?33¢33%
- Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?11¢11%
- Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?5¢5%
- Will Myriam Bregman win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?3¢3%
- Will Lionel Messi win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?2¢2%
- Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?1¢1%
- Will Daniel Hadad win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?1¢1%
- Will Dante Gebel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?<1¢<1%
- Will Karina Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?<1¢<1%
- Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?<1¢<1%
- Will Esteban Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?<1¢<1%
43.5%Javier Milei$308.4k Vol.
32.5%Axel Kicillof$170.7k Vol.
3%10.8%Sergio Massa$138k Vol.
4.8%Patricia Bullrich$63k Vol.
1%2.7%Myriam Bregman$94.9k Vol.
1%1.5%Lionel Messi$51.6k Vol.
1.4%Cristina Fernández de Kirchner$50.3k Vol.
1.3%Daniel Hadad$56.3k Vol.
0.6%Dante Gebel$74.6k Vol.
0.6%Karina Milei$24.2k Vol.
0.4%Victoria Villarruel$69.6k Vol.
0.3%Esteban Bullrich$58.1k Vol.
Incumbent President Javier Milei leads the trader consensus for the next Argentine presidential election at 43.5 percent, followed by Axel Kicillof at 32.5 percent, as markets reflect his position heading into the cycle. Sergio Massa and other listed candidates trail further behind. Economic policy outcomes, legislative negotiations, and provincial dynamics under the current administration continue to shape positioning among Peronist and opposition figures. The spread across multiple names highlights a fragmented field typical of Argentina's multi-party system, where primary votes and coalition alignments could still shift probabilities before the general election. No major new developments in the past 30 days have altered these core factors.
Rules
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).