- Will Axel Kicillof win the Peronist nomination to contest the 2027 Argentine presidential election?59¢59%
- Will Sergio Massa win the Peronist nomination to contest the 2027 Argentine presidential election?27¢27%
- Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner win the Peronist nomination to contest the 2027 Argentine presidential election?12¢12%
8%58.5%Axel Kicillof$4.9k Vol.
27%Sergio Massa$2k Vol.
1%11.5%Cristina Fernández de Kirchner$614.1 Vol.
Axel Kicillof leads trader pricing for the Peronist presidential nominee at 60.5 percent due to his active national positioning as Buenos Aires governor, including recent rallies, meetings with mayors through the Movimiento Derecho al Futuro, and repeated calls for PASO primaries to select the 2027 candidate rather than closed agreements. Sergio Massa at 27 percent and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner at 11.5 percent reflect their influence within Peronist factions, tempered by legal barriers for Kirchner and Massa's role in unity efforts. Recent developments include Kicillof's public willingness to compete internally against both, parallel Peronist events exposing internal divisions, and meetings among Kicillof, Máximo Kirchner, and Massa to coordinate strategy against the Milei government ahead of the November 2026 PJ congress. The broad field at 50 percent signals ongoing uncertainty over other potential contenders and the timing of formal nominations.
Rules
Argentina's next presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the individual who becomes the presidential candidate of the main Peronist electoral coalition for the 2027 Argentine presidential election. For the purposes of this market, the “main Peronist electoral coalition” is the political party or electoral alliance that includes the Partido Justicialista (PJ) at the national level (as of October 2026, Fuerza Patria). If the PJ contests the presidential election on its own rather than as part of an alliance, the PJ’s presidential candidate will qualify. An individual will be considered the nominee once their candidacy for President has been officially registered by the main Peronist electoral coalition for the first round of the 2027 presidential election and approved (oficializada) by the competent Argentine electoral court. If a primary election is held, an individual who wins the coalition’s presidential primary will qualify only once their candidacy for the first round has been approved. If no presidential candidacy of the main Peronist electoral coalition has been approved for the first round by October 24, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Any replacement of the nominee after their candidacy has been approved will not change the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.