- Will Manuel Enrique Vera Paredes win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?65¢65%
- Will Alfredo Willy Benavente Godoy win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?35¢35%
- Will Deyanira Yajaira Salazar Rivera win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?34¢34%
- Will Lorenzo Filomeno Colque Arias win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?4¢4%
- Will Andrés Eliseo Risueño Portugal win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?2¢2%
- Will Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?1¢1%
- Will José Miguel Briones Silva win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Ruccy Judith Oscco Polar win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Renzo Alonso Salas Herrera win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Elizabeth Genesis Amado Quispe win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Lizbeth Zavala Vilca win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
- Will Juan Roberto Muñoz Pinto win the next Arequipa mayoral elections?<1¢<1%
Manuel Enrique Vera Paredes of Fuerza Arequipeña leads the Arequipa provincial mayoral race with an 83.7% implied probability following the October 4, 2026 municipal elections. Official counts from the Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE), processed to over 99%, show him securing approximately 19.3% of valid votes—enough to prevail in a fragmented field of 17 candidates—while Alfredo Willy Benavente Godoy of Ahora Nación trails at 15.7% for a 14.8% market share. Lower-probability contenders such as Deyanira Yajaira Salazar Rivera, Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa, and others register single-digit or sub-1% tallies consistent with pre-election surveys and exit polls. Vera's edge stems from his incumbency as Cerro Colorado mayor, regional party infrastructure, and stronger district-level performance; he is projected to take office January 1, 2027, pending final certification and any residual challenges.
Rules
The 2026 Arequipa, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Provincial Municipality of Arequipa as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If this election is annulled or the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).