- Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?5¢5%
Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices face a high procedural threshold for removal, requiring a Senate supermajority of 54 votes out of 81 on crimes of responsibility, a bar never cleared in the court’s history. Recent congressional elections strengthened right-leaning blocs aligned with former President Bolsonaro’s allies to roughly 49 seats, still short of the threshold, while Senate President Davi Alcolumbre—expected to retain his post—has previously blocked more than 100 pending requests. Lula’s reelection and ongoing judicial reform debates, including rules limiting filings and raising early-stage quorums, further constrain momentum before the new Senate convenes in February 2027. Trader consensus on “no” removal by year-end reflects these structural and timing barriers. A rapid change in Senate leadership or an unforeseen scandal accelerating proceedings could still shift odds within the narrow window.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count. Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.