- Another Canada election called by December 31, 2026?5¢5%
Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney hold a slim majority in the House of Commons following the 2025 federal election and subsequent by-election gains plus floor crossings, giving them 173 of 343 seats as of mid-October 2026. Recent polling shows the party maintaining a double-digit lead over the Conservatives, reducing any immediate incentive for an early dissolution. The fixed-date election remains set for October 15, 2029, under the Canada Elections Act, and no confidence motion, supply defeat, or other procedural trigger has materialized. Provincial developments such as Alberta’s October 19 independence referendum and the Parti Québécois victory in Quebec have dominated recent headlines without spilling over into federal instability. Traders therefore price a low probability of Parliament being dissolved and a new election called before late 2026 or 2027, consistent with historical patterns for majority governments.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.