- Alaska passes ballot measure repealing ranked choice voting?14¢14%
Alaska voters will decide Ballot Measure 2 on November 3, 2026, which would replace the state’s top-four nonpartisan primaries and ranked-choice voting system with partisan primaries and single-choice general elections while also repealing certain 2020 campaign finance disclosure rules. A similar repeal effort failed by just 743 votes in 2024. Recent polling shows a narrow lead for rejection, with one early October survey at 47% yes and 53% no. Opponents have raised substantially more outside funding than supporters. President Trump’s mid-October rally urging a yes vote to end ranked-choice voting adds visibility, yet the measure’s broader scope and the prior narrow defeat continue to shape trader expectations around the current 60.5% implied probability of failure.
Rules
Alaska Ballot Measure 2 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would eliminate the top-four primaries and ranked-choice voting general elections in Alaska, among other items. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Alaska statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Alaska, including the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/).