Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Aguascalientes on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Aguascalientes and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Aguascalientes and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
The Aguascalientes gubernatorial contest for June 2027 remains tightly contested in trader pricing, with Antonio Martín del Campo holding the leading position at 46% amid PAN’s historical dominance in the state and his strong internal polling lead for the nomination. Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez sits at 25% as the main Morena-linked contender, while Leonardo Montañez Castro trails at 11% and a fragmented field of other aspirants accounts for the balance. Primary drivers include ongoing party nomination processes, where Martín del Campo has consolidated PAN support in mid-2026 surveys, alongside broader competition between PAN’s traditional base and Morena’s efforts to expand in this opposition stronghold. Candidate consolidation within coalitions, shifts in alliances, and early general-election positioning continue to sustain volatility, with further polling, nomination resolutions, or coalition developments before the vote likely to create clearer separation among frontrunners.