- Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?51¢
- Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?39¢
- Will Lakhwinder Jhaj win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?6¢
A by-election in the British Columbia electoral district of Abbotsford-Mission is scheduled to take place on September 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election to the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).
The Abbotsford-Mission by-election, set for September 26 after Reann Gasper resigned to allow BC Conservative Leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay to seek a seat, features a rematch with NDP candidate Pam Alexis, who lost the riding by roughly 10 points in 2024. Trader odds reflect a narrow edge for Findlay amid uncertainty from multiple minor-party entrants, CentreBC's Lakhwinder Jhaj, and recent Conservative caucus defections that have complicated party cohesion. A short campaign window, advance voting from September 18-23, and mixed signals on leader preference versus candidate support have kept probabilities clustered near even. Further separation could emerge after nominations close on September 5, depending on turnout patterns in this Fraser Valley riding and any late shifts in local issues like housing or health care.