- Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?4¢4%
- Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?4¢4%
- Will Lakhwinder Jhaj win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?2¢2%
Recent party leadership changes and the cancellation of the scheduled by-election in favor of a snap provincial election have created substantial uncertainty over the Abbotsford-Mission outcome, producing even odds across a crowded field of candidates. Internal Conservative divisions, including multiple caucus departures, have limited clear frontrunner status for any single contender while the broader slate of nominees from the NDP, CentreBC, and minor parties remains viable in traders' assessments. Official certification of results, potential recounts, or confirmation of participation by key figures could separate probabilities once the general election process concludes.
Rules
A by-election in the British Columbia electoral district of Abbotsford-Mission is scheduled to take place on September 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election to the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).