- Will there be less than 85m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?<1¢<1%
- Will there be between 85m and 90m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?<1¢<1%
- Will there be between 90m and 95m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?<1¢<1%
- Will there be between 95m and 100m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?<1¢<1%
- Will there be between 100m and 105m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?2¢2%
- Will there be between 105m and 110m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?3¢3%
- Will there be between 110m and 115m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?<1¢<1%
- Will there be between 115m and 120m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?14¢14%
- Will there be between 120m and 125m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?73¢73%
- Will there be between 125m and 130m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?4¢4%
- Will there be at least 130m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?3¢3%
High early voting totals—exceeding 2022 paces in multiple states—and elevated voter engagement, with Gallup recording a midterm-high 56% of adults giving the election substantial thought, have driven trader expectations toward the 115-125 million House ballot range. Democratic enthusiasm advantages, fueled by dissatisfaction with economic conditions and presidential approval ratings in the high thirties, alongside expanded early voting access, support turnout near or above 2018 levels. Republicans have focused mobilization on Election Day voters to close gaps, yet the overall environment of heightened attention and issue-driven participation has concentrated implied probabilities on these mid-range outcomes ahead of final certification.
Rules
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.