- 特朗普会在2027年前获得格陵兰吗？1¢1%
Recent diplomatic developments have solidified trader expectations that no transfer of Greenland's sovereignty to the United States will occur before 2027. A September 2026 trilateral security agreement, ratified by Greenland's parliament in early November, expands U.S. military access, permits new defense areas and facilities such as elements of the Golden Dome system, and excludes adversaries from sensitive investments while explicitly reaffirming Danish sovereignty and Greenland's right to self-determination. Denmark's parliament is scheduled to complete its review later in November. Consistent public statements from Danish and Greenlandic leaders rejecting any sale or annexation, combined with the limited time remaining before the market's December 31, 2026 resolution window, underpin the 98.8% implied probability on No. A sudden reversal in Copenhagen or Nuuk positions remains the primary low-probability pathway that could still shift the outcome.
规则
如果美国在 2026年12月31日、23:59 ET 前正式宣布格陵兰将归美国主权管辖，则此市场判定为“是”。否则，本市场将判定为“否”。 主权是指格陵兰的大部分领土从目前作为丹麦王国内自治领土的地位，转为由美国正式治理或管辖，无论其在美国体制下被划分为州、领土还是其他类别。 美国和丹麦正式宣布格陵兰将归美国主权管辖，即符合条件，即使主权尚未实际移交也一样。只有正式协议或行动的公告（例如行政命令、已签署的立法等）才会计入；仅在社交媒体发布帖子则不计入。 此市场的判定依据为美国、格陵兰和丹麦政府的官方信息；不过，可信报道一致确认格陵兰已归美国主权管辖，也符合条件。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。