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The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Recent polling shows Marine Le Pen maintaining a wide first-round lead near 35 percent for the 2027 contest, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon has risen sharply to 16 percent and now qualifies for a potential runoff in multiple scenarios against her. A fragmented centrist field, including Édouard Philippe, Gabriel Attal, and Raphaël Glucksmann, keeps moderates divided and elevates the two poles, consistent with trader pricing that places Le Pen ahead of Philippe and Mélenchon. Le Pen’s July candidacy declaration and court reprieve have sustained her support without apparent penalty. Further candidate withdrawals, center-right consolidation, or shifts in left-wing alliances could alter first-round margins and runoff probabilities before the April vote.