- 共和党会赢得爱荷华和堪萨斯，并输掉阿拉斯加、缅因、密歇根、俄亥俄和德克萨斯吗？37¢37%
- 共和党会赢得阿拉斯加、爱荷华、堪萨斯、缅因、密歇根和俄亥俄，同时输掉德克萨斯吗？37¢37%
- 共和党会赢得阿拉斯加、爱荷华、缅因、密歇根、俄亥俄和德克萨斯，并输掉堪萨斯吗？37¢37%
- 共和党会赢得阿拉斯加、堪萨斯、缅因、密歇根、俄亥俄和德克萨斯，并输掉艾奥瓦州吗？37¢37%
- 共和党会赢得阿拉斯加、爱荷华、密歇根、俄亥俄和德克萨斯，并输掉堪萨斯和缅因吗？37¢37%
- 共和党会赢得阿拉斯加、缅因、密歇根、俄亥俄和德克萨斯，并输掉爱荷华和堪萨斯吗？37¢37%
- 共和党会赢得阿拉斯加、爱荷华、缅因和俄亥俄，并输掉堪萨斯、密歇根和德克萨斯吗？37¢37%
- 共和党会赢得阿拉斯加、堪萨斯、缅因和俄亥俄，并输掉爱荷华、密歇根和德克萨斯吗？37¢37%
- 共和党会赢得阿拉斯加州、缅因州、密歇根州和德克萨斯州，同时在艾奥瓦州、堪萨斯州和俄亥俄州落败吗？37¢37%
- 共和党会赢得爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、缅因州和密歇根州，并输掉阿拉斯加州、俄亥俄州和德克萨斯州吗？37¢37%
- 共和党会赢得爱荷华州、缅因州、密歇根州和德克萨斯州，并输掉阿拉斯加州、堪萨斯州和俄亥俄州吗？37¢37%
- 共和党会赢得堪萨斯、缅因、密歇根和德克萨斯，并输掉阿拉斯加、爱荷华和俄亥俄吗？37¢37%
Recent polling averages across the seven tossup Senate contests show margins of three points or less in most states, with Democrats holding narrow leads or ties in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas while Iowa and Kansas remain virtual dead heats. This environment, shaped by a Democratic-leaning national generic ballot, economic concerns, and voter sentiment tied to the current administration, has produced high uncertainty about exactly which Republican-held seats will hold. Late-cycle shifts in individual races, turnout differentials in key demographics, and state-specific candidate dynamics keep outcomes interdependent yet unpredictable. Trader consensus therefore fragments across dozens of combinations rather than concentrating on any single set, reflecting the narrow path for Republicans to secure multiple victories amid closely contested fundamentals.
规则
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.