The November 3, 2026 midterms, in which Democrats gained control of both chambers of Congress, removed a key barrier for potential 2028 contenders and opened the window for announcements before 2027. No major-party figure has yet filed with the Federal Election Commission or launched a campaign, consistent with historical patterns in which the first serious bids typically appear between one week and four months after midterms. Several high-profile names, including Vice President JD Vance, former Vice President Kamala Harris, Governor Gavin Newsom, Senator Cory Booker, and Governor Josh Shapiro, have left the door open or signaled post-election decisions, with some expecting clarity by early January. Exploratory activity, such as draft committees, has begun for figures like Representative Ro Khanna, while others have ruled out runs. Traders are monitoring polling leads, fundraising starts, and scheduled statements for the first major declarations.
如果所列个人在 2026年12月31日、23:59 ET 之前正式宣布参加 2028 年美国总统选举,竞选美国总统,本市场将判定为“是”。否则,此市场将判定为“否”。 所列人士的宣布即足以使本市场判定为“是”,无论其是否实际提交参选提名,或是否会在未来提交参选提名。 本市场判定的主要依据是所列人士的官方声明(例如通过演讲、社交媒体等);不过,也可以采用可信报道形成的共识。
机器翻译。如有争议,以原文为准。