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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Recent mid-decade redistricting added rural Republican-leaning counties to Missouri's 5th district while retaining core Kansas City population centers, shifting its Cook PVI to R+9 and prompting forecasts to rate the seat Solid Republican. Incumbent Democrat Emanuel Cleaver advanced unopposed in the August primary, while state Senator Rick Brattin secured the Republican nomination after defeating a crowded field that included Taylor Burks. Traders appear to weigh Cleaver's long tenure, name recognition, and fundraising edge against the altered map and Brattin's Trump endorsement, sustaining the Democratic Party's position as the consensus favorite at 80.5% implied probability ahead of the November general election. Upcoming campaign events and any late polling shifts could still influence positioning before resolution.