- Dan J. Sullivan 会在1月31日前被起诉吗？8¢8%
The Justice Department’s accelerated criminal probe into allegations that Democratic operatives recruited Daniel J. Sullivan to appear on Alaska’s Senate ballot centers on potential voter confusion and conspiracy claims tied to the 2026 race against incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democratic nominee Mary Peltola. Multiple grand jury subpoenas and records demands have issued since late October following public reporting on campaign involvement, with federal prosecutors also seeking to preserve ballots for possible review. No charges have been filed against any party, including the candidate himself, who has denied any deceptive intent. Given the procedural timelines for indictments in election-related matters, the absence of imminent action against Sullivan, and the investigation’s primary focus on recruitment efforts, trader consensus assigns an 84.5% probability that he will not face charges by January 31.
规则
如果在市场创建至 2027年1月31日、23:59 ET 期间，美国任何联邦或州司法管辖区正式起诉阿拉斯加州参议员候选人 Daniel J. Sullivan，或以其他方式宣布对其提出刑事起诉，则本市场结算为“是”。否则，此市场将判定为“否”。 就本市场而言，哥伦比亚特区以及任何州的任何县、市或其他下级行政区均纳入“州”的定义。 本市场的主要判定依据为美国政府来源的官方信息；不过，也会参考可信报道的广泛共识。
机器翻译。如有争议，以原文为准。