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The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) leads trader pricing for first place in Mato Grosso do Sul’s October 4, 2026 Senate race, reflecting his strong polling position and broad coalition backing. Recent surveys from late August show him at roughly 22% combined support for the two available seats, ahead of PL running mate Capitão Contar (15%) and other contenders such as Soraya Thronicke (PSB) and Vander Loubet (PT). Azambuja benefits from his prior two terms as governor, established rural and interior networks, and the decision by former senator Nelsinho Trad to serve as his alternate rather than compete. The PL ticket consolidated center-right support around the state administration, narrowing opportunities for rivals amid elevated undecided voters and a single-round contest that elects the top two finishers.