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The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Marine Le Pen leads the market at 32.3% amid National Rally strength and her July 2026 decision to run after an appeals court shortened her electoral ban, though she remains under appeal. A Harris Interactive-Toluna poll released August 24 showed Jean-Luc Mélenchon rising to 16-17% and qualifying for a runoff against her in three of five first-round scenarios, tightening his position at 14.5% as the left consolidates around La France Insoumise. Édouard Philippe trails at 24.5% but faces pressure from a crowded center including Gabriel Attal and Raphaël Glucksmann, whose fragmented candidacies limit consolidation against the extremes. The April 2027 two-round system and persistent polarization keep probabilities fluid, with further polling shifts or legal rulings on eligibility likely to widen gaps among frontrunners.