- Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?89¢89%
Japan-China diplomatic relations remain strained following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November 2025 remarks linking a Taiwan contingency to Japan’s potential exercise of collective self-defense, prompting Beijing to demand a retraction and impose measures including seafood import restrictions and export controls on strategic materials. As of mid-November 2026, formal bilateral talks between President Xi Jinping and Takaichi appear unlikely at the APEC leaders’ summit in Shenzhen scheduled for November 18-19. Japanese officials are seeking assurances of at least a protocol-level handshake or brief interaction to avoid a public snub, while Chinese sources indicate Takaichi may be the only major participating leader without a dedicated meeting. These dynamics reflect ongoing security frictions and limited recent progress toward normalization, shaping trader assessments of any near-term encounter.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.