Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?
- Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?60¢
- Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30?28¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) or Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E), Zaporizhzhya Oblast, between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ukrainian forces achieved their first net territorial gains in over a year with a February 2026 counterattack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast that recovered roughly 100 square miles near Hulyaipole, while Russian units had seized Temyrivka in July 2025 and Obratne by October 2025. Continued Ukrainian operations in the Oleksandrivskyi sector through mid-2026, including reported recaptures totaling hundreds of square kilometers, sustain trader focus on potential re-entry into these specific villages according to ISW mapping. Russian defensive reinforcements and the pattern of incremental frontline shifts rather than rapid reversals shape assessments of near-term Ukrainian advances in this sector amid broader attrition across Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.