- Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?4¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Traders assign a 96.4% probability that Donald Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any public statements, administration signals, or documented developments indicating such an intention during his current term. Trump continues to advance policy priorities, including executive actions on healthcare costs and drug pricing, consistent with an incumbent serving out a full term that extends into 2029. Historical patterns show U.S. presidents rarely resign absent acute legal compulsion or severe incapacity, and no comparable triggers have emerged. Midterm election results in November 2026 could create political pressure, yet the short window to year-end limits immediate impact. Realistic scenarios that might still shift odds include a sudden health event requiring medical withdrawal, major unforeseen legal developments, or rapid post-election coalition shifts within the Republican Party prompting voluntary exit.