- UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?19¢19%
Ongoing diplomatic efforts following the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding have produced draft frameworks on nuclear limits, Strait of Hormuz access, and phased sanctions relief, yet talks remain stalled over verification of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and the scope of UNSC sanctions termination. IAEA reports of safeguards noncompliance prompted Security Council briefings in late October 2026, where divisions among permanent members and calls for accountability have complicated consensus on any binding endorsement. Recent U.S. rejections of Iranian proposals and continued regional tensions have slowed momentum toward a finalized agreement, leaving insufficient time for UNSC action before year-end under current conditions. Trader consensus reflects these protracted barriers to resolution.
Rules
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.