- Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?44¢
- Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?21¢
- Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?73¢
- Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?15¢
- Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?12¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Elevated war-risk insurance premiums—now around 40 times normal levels—combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities and IRGC enforcement have suppressed commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit or low double-digit daily volumes as of late August 2026, versus a pre-crisis baseline near 85 vessels. Brent crude has held above $89 amid supply uncertainty, while VLCC and product tanker rates have surged toward record highs exceeding $600,000 per day as operators reroute or idle capacity. Iran-Oman talks on a temporary corridor continue without resolution, keeping most major container lines diverted and roughly 400 vessels affected. With September 30 resolution approaching, any sustained rebound in daily crossings hinges on verifiable de-escalation and insurance normalization rather than diplomatic statements alone.