- Will Russia target Kyiv on September 5, 2026?70¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on September 6, 2026?30¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on September 7, 2026?44¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on September 8, 2026?60¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on September 9, 2026?76¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on September 10, 2026?70¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on September 11, 2026?70¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on September 12, 2026?70¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on September 13, 2026?72¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026?70¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on September 15, 2026?70¢
- Will Russia target Kyiv on September 16, 2026?70¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.
Russian forces have sustained an intensified aerial campaign against Kyiv, including a September 4 drone strike directly on the SBU security service headquarters that injured at least 12 people and marked one of the highest-profile targets hit in the capital during the conflict. This followed more than a week of near-daily drone and missile barrages involving jet-powered Shahed variants, ballistic missiles, and other munitions, with Ukrainian air defenses intercepting most but not all incoming threats. President Zelensky pledged a tangible response while U.S. negotiators prepared visits to both Moscow and Kyiv amid stalled diplomatic efforts. Trader sentiment on near-term targeting markets reflects these repeated strikes, Ukrainian retaliation signals, and the broader pattern of Russian pressure on military and infrastructure sites in the capital region.