Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?
- Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?3¢
- Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026?8¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Prymorske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Stepnohirsk" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Prymorske, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K7mS2YU7bZoVVHga9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Russian forces have conducted repeated but limited infiltration attempts and localized assaults near Prymorske in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast since early 2026, yet recent assessments show no sustained Russian control over southern portions of the settlement as of early August. Ukrainian units have repelled incremental Russian advances through counterattacks, with independent mapping confirming Ukrainian gains south of Prymorske and Russian withdrawals from central and northern areas by March and May. Broader Ukrainian offensive operations in the Oleksandrivskyi sector have liberated over 600 square kilometers and multiple settlements this year, maintaining pressure on Russian positions around Orikhiv. Ongoing attritional fighting, artillery exchanges, and drone activity continue without confirmed full Russian occupation, shaping trader consensus around low implied probability for complete capture by near-term resolution windows.