Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?10¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal and advanced related parliamentary bills since early 2025, intensifying after U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in 2026 and amid snapback sanctions pressures. These steps, including a March 2026 emergency bill and a July 2026 call by a presiding board member for immediate exit, reflect retaliation signaling and efforts to repeal JCPOA-linked laws while pursuing alternative cooperation frameworks. No formal notification under Article X has been submitted to the United Nations, however, and Iran has continued submitting working papers to the 2026 NPT Review Conference while engaging in interim diplomatic talks on verification and enrichment limits. Traders assign high probability to no withdrawal before 2027 because the move would forfeit civil nuclear assistance, heighten isolation, and undermine leverage in ongoing negotiations relative to monitored stockpile management.