- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?9¢9%
Iranian officials have repeatedly affirmed continued adherence to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty despite multiple parliamentary proposals for withdrawal registered in 2026 and public statements from hardliners following US and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites. Foreign Ministry spokesmen and senior figures including Mohsen Rezaei have described exit as neither immediate policy nor decided, with any future step tied to US actions and ongoing mediated talks on sanctions, inspections, and conflict de-escalation. No Article X notice has been issued, and the government maintains its safeguards commitments even as IAEA access remains limited outside specific facilities. Trader consensus on low odds of withdrawal before 2027 reflects this sustained official stance, though escalation in hostilities or leadership shifts could still alter the trajectory within the period.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.