- Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?36¢36%
- Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?24¢24%
- Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?16¢16%
- Will Mike Waltz be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?5¢5%
- Will Russell T. Vought be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?5¢5%
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?5¢5%
- Will Marco Rubio be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?4¢4%
- Will Scott Turner be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?4¢4%
- Will Chris Wright be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?3¢3%
- Will John Ratcliffe be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?3¢3%
- Will Kelly Loeffler be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?3¢3%
- Will Howard Lutnick be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?2¢2%
Trader consensus positions no cabinet departures before 2027 as the leading outcome, reflecting limited high-profile exits or forced resignations in the current term despite ongoing policy implementation across departments. Susie Wiles holds the top individual probability, tied to her central advisory role and any internal White House dynamics that could prompt a transition. Pete Hegseth ranks next, linked to sustained oversight of defense priorities and confirmation-related scrutiny that sometimes precedes turnover. Lower odds for figures such as Mike Waltz, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Chris Wright indicate fewer immediate catalysts, with probabilities shaped by the absence of major legislative votes, agency reorganizations, or public disputes in recent weeks. Upcoming budget deadlines or confirmation hearings remain potential inflection points that could alter these assessments.
Rules
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.