- Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?35¢
- Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?14¢
- Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?16¢
- Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?34¢
- Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?3¢
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026, legislative election place Likud in the low-to-mid 20s amid a fragmented right-wing field. Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael party has drawn votes from Likud and especially Religious Zionism, often pushing the latter below the 3.25% threshold and limiting Netanyahu’s bloc to around 48 seats even with Winter included. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party consistently leads or ties Likud in surveys, reflecting voter shifts toward newer center-right options. These dynamics, combined with ongoing coalition strains over military exemptions and security priorities, keep the 20-24 and 25-29 ranges nearly even in trader pricing while capping higher outcomes. Further right-wing consolidation or opposition fragmentation could shift seat totals before election day.