Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?2¢
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in September?18¢
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?8¢
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November?8¢
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?11¢
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?55¢
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions from the 2026 conflict, including recent ship attacks on August 13 and U.S. threats of indefinite naval blockade, keep Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 13 vessels daily—well below the pre-war average of 130-plus—with no crude oil movements reported amid prohibitive war-risk insurance and Iranian routing demands. These factors drive the 54.5% market-implied probability of no normalization in 2026, as persistent security risks and stalled MOU implementation outweigh partial rebounds seen after the April ceasefire or June agreement. Modest September odds at 17.5% hinge on near-term diplomatic progress before year-end resolution probabilities of 26.5% across October–December. Traders are pricing in macroeconomic spillovers to energy prices and global supply chains pending FOMC-influenced risk sentiment or breakthrough talks.