- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?35¢
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?48¢
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?30¢
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?48¢
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?43¢
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?14¢
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?31¢
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?45¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions in the Persian Gulf, including the active U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and Iranian threats to bar military vessels from the Strait of Hormuz, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment. Recent Iran-Oman talks on a temporary commercial corridor explicitly exclude warships, reinforcing low implied probabilities for additional national navies transiting by year-end. Energy market dynamics amplify focus here, as the strait handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows; sustained disruptions have kept war-risk premiums elevated and commercial transits well below the pre-2026 baseline of 130 vessels daily. U.S. carrier strike groups and escorts in the Gulf of Oman provide the primary naval footprint, but fresh deployments by other nations face high barriers from Iranian IRGC activity and diplomatic signaling. Key near-term catalysts include any FOMC-adjacent risk-off moves in oil benchmarks or updates on mine-clearing and corridor negotiations that could alter naval risk assessments.