- Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?95¢95%
- Will Trump and Putin not meet?4¢4%
- Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?<1¢<1%
- Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?<1¢<1%
1%94.5%China$535.2k Vol.
4.3%No meeting by December 31$621k Vol.
0.5%United States$189.5k Vol.
0.2%Russia$203k Vol.
Active negotiations for a trilateral summit on the sidelines of the November 18-19 APEC forum in Shenzhen have driven trader consensus toward China as the site of the next Trump-Putin meeting. Trump has publicly stated his expectation of meeting both Putin and Xi there to discuss denuclearization and related issues, while Kremlin officials confirm coordination is underway and Chinese diplomats have acknowledged ongoing communications among the parties. This positioning aligns with China's role as host and the timeline compressing before year-end. A shift away from China would require last-minute logistical breakdowns, a decision to hold only bilateral sessions instead, or an unexpected bilateral encounter elsewhere before the APEC dates.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.