Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?<1¢
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026?<1¢
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq by September 30, 2026?<1¢
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?<1¢
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026?<1¢
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran by September 30, 2026?<1¢
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?<1¢
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?<1¢
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?<1¢
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?<1¢
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?11¢
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?5¢
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins. If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.” If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.” For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent developments in US-Iran diplomacy, including conflicting statements from both sides in early August 2026 over adherence to the June Islamabad Memorandum and resumption of technical talks, have positioned "No Meeting by September 30" as the leading outcome at 59%. US officials have signaled ongoing indirect messaging and progress on issues like the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian statements have emphasized unresolved violations and no immediate plans for formal sessions. This uncertainty, combined with prior technical rounds held in Switzerland and Qatar, sustains modest probabilities for those neutral venues alongside Pakistan, which mediated earlier ceasefires. Oman and other Gulf or European sites remain lower due to limited recent signals of hosting the next round. Trader consensus reflects the risk that stalled direct negotiations could extend beyond the September deadline amid persistent regional tensions.