- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be less than 2,500,000?5¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 2,500,000 and 2,750,000?7¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 2,750,000 and 3,000,000?5¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,000,000 and 3,250,000?10¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,250,000 and 3,500,000?22¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?39¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,750,000 and 4,000,000?11¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be 4,000,000 or more?8¢
The closely matched Polymarket brackets around 3.25M–3.75M votes reflect the Virginia U.S. Senate contest’s safe Democratic status, with incumbent Mark Warner holding a consistent double-digit lead over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa after the August primary. This dynamic has produced limited overall campaign intensity and softer early participation from the Republican base, muting base-driven turnout surges typical of more competitive races. With approximately 6.47 million registered voters, historical midterm patterns show total ballots hinge more on suburban and independent mobilization than partisan enthusiasm alone. Traders view further separation among the leading ranges as likely to turn on late-cycle advertising volume, get-out-the-vote spending by both campaigns, and any national developments that shift broader participation rates before November 3 without fundamentally altering the underlying partisan environment.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.