- Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?93¢
- Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?3¢
- Will Marco Rubio be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?1¢
- Will Dinorah Figuera be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will Jorge Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will Donald Trump be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will Vladimir Padrino López be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will Evan Pettus be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will Richard Grenell be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
Delcy Rodríguez holds a commanding position as Venezuela’s interim president following the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro, with the Supreme Court directing her to assume executive powers and maintain institutional continuity. She has consolidated authority through cabinet and military reshuffles, control of the National Assembly via her brother Jorge Rodríguez, ongoing U.S.-backed talks with select opposition figures such as Dinorah Figuera, prisoner releases, limited judicial and media reforms, and energy cooperation agreements. These steps, combined with the absence of a scheduled presidential election or successful challenge from sidelined opposition leaders like María Corina Machado, underpin trader consensus on her continued role. Potential shifts could arise from accelerated election timelines under constitutional rules, erosion of military backing, or abrupt changes in U.S. engagement.
Rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.