- Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?95¢
- Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will Edmundo González be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will Vladimir Padrino López be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will Marco Rubio be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will Dan Caine be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will Frank Donovan be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?3¢
- Will Jorge Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
- Will Donald Trump be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Delcy Rodríguez holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for Venezuela’s de facto leader at the end of 2026 because she assumed the interim presidency in January 2026 after U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro and has since consolidated executive authority with military backing, National Assembly support, and explicit U.S. recognition. She has reshuffled cabinet and military posts, advanced oil-sector reforms aligned with Washington’s demands, secured sanctions relief, and managed the response to June earthquakes while preserving continuity of the existing institutional framework. Low probabilities for opposition figures such as María Corina Machado reflect limited near-term pathways to power absent scheduled elections or major internal fractures. Potential shifts could arise from sustained public discontent over economic conditions, renewed coalition pressures within Chavismo, or abrupt changes in U.S. policy that alter her interim mandate before year-end.