- Will the Republican Party win the UT-04 House seat?95¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the UT-04 House seat?6¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Utah's 4th congressional district, redrawn after court-ordered redistricting, carries a strong Republican tilt with an R+17 partisan voting index and a history of double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Mike Kennedy secured the Republican nomination without a primary contest after Burgess Owens opted not to run, positioning an experienced incumbent against Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen in a district that favored Donald Trump by wide margins in 2024. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Republican nominee reflects the district's structural advantages, limited Democratic infrastructure in western Utah counties, and absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would suggest an upset. A late scandal, national Democratic wave, or unusually high turnout among suburban voters could narrow the gap, though such shifts would need to overcome the district's consistent partisan baseline.