- US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?98¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Iran between market creation and August 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes. Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify. The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct. The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The US Treasury's August 24 launch of Operation Economic Outcast, including sanctions on over 60 Iran-linked entities, individuals, and vessels plus expanded secondary sanctions authority across digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping sectors, has driven near-certain trader consensus on imminent new measures. This escalation occurs amid a six-month conflict, with the administration mapping evasion networks and issuing timelines for third-country compliance or unilateral enforcement. Secondary sanctions threats against facilitators, including potential actions on major financial institutions by week's end, reinforce the positioning. While the actions announced today align closely with the market's timeframe, late-day clarification on exact designations or any procedural delays in OFAC implementation could still shift resolution, though such outcomes appear remote given the scale of measures already detailed.