- Will the Republican Party win the TX-03 House seat?95¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-03 House seat?4¢
The Texas 3rd Congressional District's strong Republican lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 23-point margin there in 2024, combined with incumbent Keith Self's decisive primary victory, underpins trader consensus favoring his reelection over Democrat Evan Hunt on November 3. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Republican, consistent with the district's history of double-digit GOP margins and Self's prior service as Collin County judge. Campaign discussion centers on infrastructure strain from rapid North Texas population growth and data center expansion, though these local factors have not shifted the race into competitive territory. Late developments such as unexpected turnout shifts or major scandals could theoretically narrow the gap, but structural and historical patterns limit realistic paths for the challenger.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).