- Will Chen Ting-fei win the next Tainan Mayor election?91¢91%
- Will Hsieh Lung-chieh win the next Tainan Mayor election?7¢7%
- Will Lin Yi-feng win the next Tainan Mayor election?2¢2%
- Will Lin Chun-hsien win the next Tainan Mayor election?<1¢<1%
Chen Ting-fei holds a commanding lead in the Tainan mayoral race according to recent polls, with support ratings around 45-59% against Hsieh Lung-chieh’s 22-34%, reflecting her strong Democratic Progressive Party base, higher favorability scores, and momentum as a potential first female mayor. Traders price her victory probability near 91% due to consistent leads across age groups and districts, endorsements from President Lai Ching-te, and active campaigning including street sweeps and policy outreach ahead of the November 28 vote. Minor candidates such as Yeh Jen-wen and Hsiao Lin-hung register negligible support. Late shifts among undecided voters, changes in turnout patterns, or unexpected developments in the final weeks could still alter the outcome in this closely watched local election.
Rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Tainan as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).