- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?2¢2%
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?16¢16%
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?43¢43%
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?31¢31%
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?9¢9%
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?2¢2%
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?<1¢<1%
Elon Musk’s established X posting patterns, with recent weekly totals ranging from roughly 200–340 posts and daily averages often landing in the 30–50 range, position the 65–89 tweet bracket as the market leader at 41.5% implied probability. The adjacent 90–114 range follows at 29.5%, reflecting traders’ assessment of typical activity levels absent major breaking news or product launches. Recent three-day windows have resolved near 39–96 posts, underscoring the likelihood of moderate volume over the October 29–31 period. No high-profile events or controversies appear poised to drive sustained spikes, keeping trader consensus centered on steady engagement rather than outlier bursts.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 29 12:00 PM ET to October 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.