- Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win less than 16% of all valid votes?5¢
- Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?11¢
- Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?39¢
- Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes?44¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent Novus polling shows Sweden Democrats support rising to 20.7 percent amid a sharp narrowing of the overall right-left bloc gap to just 2.6 points ahead of the September 13 vote. This late momentum, driven by voter focus on immigration, crime, and security, has kept trader expectations tightly split between an 18-20 percent and 20 percent-plus finish. Earlier surveys placed SD near 19 percent on average, with modest fluctuations tied to Tidö coalition performance and opposition losses. Final campaign events, turnout patterns among key voter groups, or shifts on cost-of-living and energy issues could still push the result across the 20 percent threshold or hold it below.