- Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes?17¢
- Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?41¢
- Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?32¢
- Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?11¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent polling averages place Moderaterna (M) support near 17%, with the latest surveys from Novus, Demoskop, and others showing figures between 16.4% and 17.2% in early September 2026. The parliamentary election on 13 September keeps the outcome sensitive to final-week shifts in turnout and bloc competition. M, as the lead party in the incumbent Tidö government alongside KD and L with SD support, has seen modest erosion from its 2022 result amid voter movement toward coalition partners and the opposition. Latest Novus data indicate M gaining some voters from S while losing ground to SD and L, with the overall right-leaning bloc narrowing the gap to the Social Democrat-led opposition to just a few points. This volatility, combined with debates over economic pressures, security, and immigration, sustains trader focus on whether M can hold above or dip below the 18% threshold. Historical patterns of late swings in Swedish elections and the 4% threshold dynamics for smaller parties add to the uncertainty reflected in the closely matched 16-18% and 18-20% intervals.