- Will PP win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?66¢66%
- Will Vox win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?31¢31%
- Will PSOE win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?2¢2%
- Will Broad Front (FA) win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1%
- Will Podemos win the Ceuta seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1%
PP leads the Ceuta congressional seat market at 60.5% as traders price in its consistent polling edge in the single-member district ahead of the November 29 general election. Forecasts show PP with roughly 34% support, ahead of Vox near 29-30% and PSOE around 28% or lower, producing a PP win in most simulations. Local priorities around border security, immigration flows, and relations with Morocco have long favored center-right options, while recent candidate validations and PSOE challenges have not altered the underlying distribution. Vox remains the clearest alternative, with left-leaning parties holding minimal implied probability. The tight national timeline leaves limited scope for late shifts before votes are cast.
Rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the seat in the Congress of Deputies of Spain allocated to the constituency of Ceuta as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).