- Will Broad Front (FA) win fewer than 6 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?2¢2%
- Will Broad Front (FA) win 6-8 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?30¢30%
- Will Broad Front (FA) win 9-11 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?21¢21%
- Will Broad Front (FA) win 12-14 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?13¢13%
- Will Broad Front (FA) win 15-17 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?14¢14%
- Will Broad Front (FA) win 18 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?17¢17%
Recent polling places the Broad Front alliance, contesting the November 29 general election under Ada Colau, between roughly 5% and 7.4% nationally, translating to seat projections clustered in the single digits or low double digits depending on the pollster. Incomplete unification with Podemos outside select regions such as the Canary Islands and Valencia raises the risk of wasted votes under the D’Hondt system, with simulations showing potential losses of four to eight seats from fragmentation. Partial territorial pacts and the decision to contest nearly all provinces except Teruel add further variability, as small shifts in turnout or regional thresholds can determine whether the alliance secures additional deputies in larger constituencies like Madrid and Barcelona. These dynamics keep implied probabilities tightly balanced between the 6–8 and 9–11 seat brackets ahead of the campaign launch.
Rules
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Broad Front (FA) in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).